Oil
Oil Prices Begin to Recover After a Turbulent Week
Canadian tariff drama, fears of OPEC+ production returning to markets, Trump’s maximum pressure on Iran, and a US-China trade war – this week seemed to have it all. Oil prices tumbled through the week but then started to recover early on Friday morning. With flattening backwardation prompting the Saudis to cut prices, the initial shock of Trump’s first month is giving way to a more nuanced approach with ICE Brent futures trading around the $71 per barrel mark.
In contrast to worsening US-Canada relations, the White House has postponed tariffs on most imports from Mexico until 2 April following President Trump’s call with his Mexican peer Claudia Sheinbaum, allowing US refiners to continue their heavy crude imports, OilPrice.com reports.
Baghdad’s political push to restart pipeline flows from Kurdish-controlled regions to Turkey’s port of Ceyhan has run aground again, after Iraq’s $16 per barrel price offered to oil companies currently drilling in Kurdistan failed to entice sufficient interest.
US investment giant BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) agreed to buy two major ports on the Panama Canal and ancillary infrastructure from Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison for $22.8 billion, in line with President Trump’s demands that Panama cut Chinese influence at the canal.
Chinese crude oil imports averaged 10.38 million b/d in January-February 2025, marking a 5% year-over-year decrease, as recent US sanctions on Iranian and Russian tankers disrupted deliveries to the northeastern Shandong province.
US LNG developer Venture Global (NYSE:VG) said it would expand the aggregate production capacity of its 27 mtpa Plaquemines LNG plant in Louisiana to 45 mtpa, eyeing additional 24 trains in the project’s third expansion phase at a cost of 18 billion.
Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222), the world’s largest oil exporter, cut its formula prices for April-loading cargoes into Asia with Arab Light now priced at $3.50 per barrel above Dubai, the first downward move in three months as the market anticipates the unwinding of OPEC+ cuts.
As announced by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the United States will withdraw from the International Partners Group, a global coal divestment initiative, leaving South Africa with a more than $1 billion financing gap to decommission coal plants.
Copper prices gained this week after US President Trump waived carmakers from tariffs and China’s National Congress doubled down on stimulus measures, sending the LME three-month contract to its highest since early November 2024, above $9,700 per metric tonne.
The government of Ireland has approved a plan to develop an emergency LNG import facility, to be used as a floating strategic gas reserve, less than two years after Dublin rejected an application to build an LNG terminal on climate grounds.
Whilst touring the Plaquemines LNG facility in Louisiana, US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright stated that he plans to seek up to $20 billion in congressional funding to refill the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, equivalent to 295 million barrels.
Canada’s midstream giant Enbridge (NYSE:ENB) has allocated $1.4 billion to boost the throughput capacity of its main US-bound oil conduit Mainline by an additional 300,000 b/d over the next three years, with 2024 flows averaging 3.1 million b/d.
The government of Indonesia announced its plan to build a new 530,000 b/d refinery at a cost of $12.5 billion, seeking to end a protracted period of import dependence as Jakarta is not being able to cover roughly 40% of oil and 42% of products demand.
Monday’s OPEC+ meeting where output-cutting members reiterated their plans to unwind production curbs from April shed some $3/bbl from oil prices this week, prompting Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak to state that OPEC+ could reverse the unwinding after April.
Tanzania announced it would launch its 5th oil and gas licensing round in May, offering 26 exploration blocks most of which would be located offshore in the Indian Ocean, seeking to build on past discoveries that built some 57 Tcf of natural gas reserves.
