President Putin, left, and President Trump
Trump-Putin Talks Put Oil Markets on Edge
The Trump-Putin meeting has become the main commodity market news of this week, with analysts speculating about the likelihood of a comprehensive deal and the impacts this could have on oil markets.
ICE Brent has been gradually sliding closer to $65 per barrel as lower sanction risks on Russia could further erode the market’s in-built risk premium, however a potential failure in the talks could spark another price rally above $70.
Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) hiked its formula prices for September-loading cargoes, raising Asia-bound OSPs by 1.20 per barrel for both its light grades and by 0.90 per barrel for its largest export stream Arab Light, in line with changes in the Dubai M1-M3 spread.
US crude exports fell to 3.1 million b/d last month, a 0.5 million b/d drop compared to June and the lowest monthly rate since October 2021, mostly driven by Asia’s weakening appetite for light sweet WTI with China continuing to boycott US crude imports.
Iraq’s oil minister Hayan Abdul Ghani announced this week that 80,000 b/d of oil exports through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline (shut since February 2023) are poised to begin this week, even though most of Kurdish production remains offline after drone attacks.
Four months ahead of schedule, the Stabroek consortium led US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) began production at the One Guyana FPSO, its fourth project in the country that adds 250,000 b/d in capacity and develops the Yellowtail-Redtail fields.
India’s state-owned oil refiner IOC bought 5 million barrels of crude from Brazil, US and Libya in its second spot tender organized this week, taking the total volume of spot crude bought this week in avoidance of Russian supply shocks to a whopping 22 million barrels.
Israel and Egypt have signed a 25-year natural gas supply deal worth 35 billion that would see gas output from the offshore Leviathan field delivered by pipeline to Egyptian customers, totalling 130 bcm by 2040 at an average assumed price of 7.75 per mmBtu.
Argentina’s state-controlled oil firm YPF (NYSE:YPF), already the country’s largest producer with oil output soaring to 270,000 b/d lately, has agreed to sell TotalEnergies’ (NYSE:TTE) oil-weighted assets in the Vaca Muerta shale basin for 700 million, adding 51,000 net acres.
Pemex’s new 10-year strategic plan envisages a thorough evaluation of Mexico’s potential for hydraulic fracturing, a practice banned by former President Lopez Obrador but now tacitly greenlighted by Claudia Sheinbaum, to stop the collapse in oil production rates.
According to Reuters, at least three tankers chartered by US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) are returning to Venezuela as flows to the United States will resume as early as this month with Chevron also reactivating its supply agreement with refining giant Valero.
Rare earth exports from China dropped by 23% month-over-month in July, quashing hopes that the temporary truce between Beijing and Washington could keep supplies afloat, with most of the supplied 5,994 metric tonnes sent to Western carmakers.
Bumerangue, the much-lauded discovery in Brazil’s offshore presented by BP last week, might go undeveloped as there might be no scalable technologies to deal with ‘elevated levels of carbon dioxide’ found in the 500m deposit, just as Petrobras’ Jupiter field.
China’s steel exports rose to an all-time high of 9.84 million metric tonnes in July, according to Chinese customs data, defying protectionist measures recently introduced by top trading partners Vietnam and South Korea, sending more semi-finished steel instead.
The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization warned that global food commodity prices rose to their highest since February 2023, with the FAO index averaging 130.1 points, as soaring vegetable oil and meat prices more than offset falling cereal and sugar prices.
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