World Bank
World Bank, IMF warn Nigeria against complacency, urge further action to curb high inflation
The World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) have called for decisive measures to further reduce Nigeria’s inflation, warning that current economic gains must translate into tangible improvements in household welfare.
The global institutions acknowledged macroeconomic improvements driven by recent reforms but stressed that the inflation rate remains unacceptably high.
Their positions were presented by the World Bank’s Senior Economist for Nigeria, Dr. Samer Matta, and the IMF’s Country Representative, Dr. Christian Ebeke, as panelists at the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook presentation in Lagos.
The IMF’s Dr. Ebeke warned specifically against complacency and self-inflicted policy volatility. “There is no other way for Nigeria, given the type of reforms that the country has undertaken… Bringing back distortions, bringing back heavy intervention… is no longer sustainable,” he stated. He identified two key risks: the belief that “the job is done,” particularly at sub-national government levels where fiscal space has increased, and the danger of pro-cyclical spending in the pre-election year, which could undo hard-won stabilization gains.
Echoing this concern, the World Bank’s Dr. Matta expressed worry about projections that see inflation dropping to single digits only by 2029. “If inflation stays above double digits for a long time, it will be hard to bring down,” he said, emphasizing that high inflation remains a major impediment to household welfare.
He urged sub-national governments, which now have higher revenues and fiscal surpluses than the federal government, to direct spending not only to infrastructure but also to education, health, and scaled-up social protection programs.
The NESG, hosting the event, projected Nigeria’s GDP to grow by 5.5% in 2026, driven by what its Chief Economist, Olusegun Omisakin, called the “urgency of consolidation.”
The group’s report set key targets, including a 16% inflation rate and an exchange rate of ₦1,480 per dollar, with external reserves rising to $52 billion.
Omisakin outlined four critical pillars for sustaining gains: macroeconomic stability, structural transformation, institutional strength, and social protection.
He highlighted that growth remains services-driven and uneven, with manufacturing and agriculture growing at a sluggish 1.5% and 2% respectively.
In his opening remarks, NESG Chairman Niyi Yusuf cautioned against policy inconsistency and reform fatigue, noting, “Stabilisation alone does not equate to prosperity.”
Separately, the Federal Government addressed public concern over the national debt. Minister of Finance Wale Edun clarified that the N152 trillion public debt figure is largely a result of foreign exchange adjustments and improved transparency—including the formal capture of N30 trillion in previously unrecognized Ways and Means advances—rather than excessive new borrowing.
He maintained that growth has been recorded across 27 sectors and that policy is now shifting to drive growth through increased investment, such as in digital infrastructure.
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