Why Trump urgently needs a way out of war with Iran

There are two so-called ceasefires in place in the Middle East, supposedly to enable talks. But while the heavy bombing of Iran, Lebanon, Israel and the Gulf States has paused, fighting continues and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. Talks are on hold.

On Sunday in Lebanon 14 people were killed in Israeli attacks, the deadliest day since the “ceasefire” between Israel and Hizbullah came into force a week ago.

This ceasefire has now been extended to mid-May.

Meanwhile, the Iran-US bombing pause has been extended without deadline by US president Donald Trump, perhaps aware now that counterproductive artificial deadlines put as much pressure on the US as on Iran while also spooking the markets.

Trump’s weekend decision to abandon talks in Islamabad before they started reflected the reality that, for all his repeated insistence about the war being close to resolution, both sides remain far apart.

Iran made a new offer, Trump said, that was “much better,” but still short of US demands.

Reportedly it was to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war, with nuclear negotiations postponed until a later stage.

For now, both sides remain wedded to ultimatist positions – no deal unless entirely on our terms. Yet diplomats insist that the three most contentious issues – Iran’s stock of highly enriched uranium, its right to a civil nuclear programme, and the full reopening of the strait – are manageable diplomatic challenges.

In prospect now may be a stand-off in the Strait of Hormuz – and in occupied southern Lebanon – with unpredictable consequences for the region and for the world.

Trump claimed over the weekend that he was wining the war “by a lot” and that the US held all the cards. It seems that the US president has never understood that it is not who is stronger militarily, but who can endure longer and who will outlast the other that is key in this asymmetric, unwinnable war.

Despite overwhelming military superiority the US has not, as Trump continues to claim, successfully degraded Iran’s army, navy and air force. It can still strike at ships , and only needs to hit one to close the strait.

Iran’s brutal regime, insulated from public opinion, has the ability to maintain a stranglehold on the strait and control a key part of the world’s supply chains of oil, gas, fertiliser, and aluminium. It is thus in possession of a long-term strategic trump card and this has shifted the global calculus on this war.

Trump knows he needs an out. Growing domestic political pressure ahead of the midterm elections, the staggering costs of the war, and increasing isolation from world allies make it an imperative to return at some point to talks. How this might be achieved, however, remains unclear.

About The Author

Dele Fashomi

Dele Fashomi, seasoned journalist and communication teacher, is a holder of Master of Arts degree in Communication and Language Arts from the University of Ibadan in 1992/93.

Earlier, he had bagged a Bachelor degree from the same university in 1984, after which he proceeded to the Nigerian Institute of Journalism, Lagos, in 1990, for a postgraduate diploma in Journalism.

He had done many courses in communication, including the EU-BBC Editing Course in 2002.

Mr. Fashomi combines effectively the practice, research and teaching of communication. And to date, he has published two academic works in communication: Issues in Communication Technology and Policy (2010) and Economic and Social Issues in Advertising and PR (2013).

He had his first break in the Nigerian media in Concord Newspapers in 1990 and today, he has over two and half decades experience earned in several newspapers.

He has been part of many start-ups, such as The Republic (1987), The Comet (1999), The Anchor 2001 – 2002; Sun Newspapers (2003); Westerner newsmagazine (2005 – 2010) as Editor; National Life (2011) as Sunday Editor, and Newswatch Newspapers (2012- 2016) as Daily Editor.

Dele Fashomi is now the Publisher/Editor-in-Chief of Newstide247.com newspaper online, which he started in July 2015. He is also into biography writing, with many books in his trail, some of which he wrote alone and one he co- authored with his mentor, Mr Dare Babarinsa, entitled:  Olabiyi Durojaiye – DARE TO BE DiFFERENT. He also guided and collaborated with Pa Olatunji Odusanya in writing his autobiography – AGAINST ALL ODDS. There are many other books in the works under his pen.

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