Oil
Russian Crude Piles Up but Oil Prices Refuse to Move
November might go down as one of the most uneventful months in oil pricing as ICE Brent continues to hover between $62 and 66 per barrel, notably narrower than the $9-per-barrel gap in October.
The oil market’s main bullish momentum now comes from Rosneft/Lukoil sanctions, however up until now they’ve resulted in a build-up of Russian crude on sea rather than a collapse in day-to-day loadings.
US investment bank Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) has revised downwards its crude oil forecast for 2026, now expecting next year to see ICE Brent average $56 per barrel and WTI to dip to $52 per barrel on OPEC+ unwinding and non-OPEC supply growth.
As Indian and Chinese buyers exercise caution ahead of the November 21 Rosneft and Lukoil sanctions deadline, Russian oil exports have dipped to 3.4 million b/d as the buildup in Russian crude tankers is now counting 11 tankers anchored next to India.
Suriname’s national oil company Staatsolie confirmed the commerciality of the Sloanea gas prospect, to be developed by Malaysia’s Petronas which operates the offshore Block 52 with an 80% stake, aiming for a 2026 FID and first gas by 2030.
Indonesia’s plan to shutter 6.7 GW of coal-fired power generation capacity could be reversed due to stalled disbursal of funds from donor countries, as the Just Energy Transition Partnership failed to collect $20 billion earmarked for the Asian country.
China’s most-traded Guangzhou lithium futures exploded this week, rising 9% on Monday alone to ¥95,200 per metric tonne ($13,400/mt) after the chairman of Ganfeng Lithium, a key lithium producer, predicted a 30-40% demand surge next year.
The Liberia-flagged Petalidi tanker arrived in Syria’s port of Baniyas, fully laden with Khuff condensate produced by Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222), Saudi Arabia’s first export of crude to Syrian refineries since the onset of the Civil War.
Brazil’s national oil company Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) reported another oil discovery with in the Sudoeste de Tartaruga Verde production sharing block in the offshore Campos Basin, marking another success in its 13-well drilling campaign.
Crude and refined product exports from Russia’s main Black Sea export terminal of Novorossiysk have resumed after a two-day hiatus triggered by Ukrainian drone strikes, with nine tankers departing the port on November 17.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard took responsibility for the seizure of the Talara tanker, claiming it was carrying an ‘unauthorized’ cargo of 30,000 metric tonnes of petrochemicals produced in Iran and required a full inspection.
China’s exports of refined products jumped 14% year-over-year to 4.52 million metric tonnes, according to Beijing’s customs data, with jet fuel accounting for 38% of all outflows, surpassing gasoline and diesel, both tallying just 750,000 tonnes.
India’s state-controlled oil firms signed a one-year import deal with US producers, seeking to buy 2.2 million metric tonnes of LPG in 2026, up from buying 1.4 million tonnes this year to date and diversifying their sourcing under pressure from US President Trump.
According to car services firm Cox Automotive, US electric vehicle sales dropped 30% year-over-year in October as the $7,500 federal tax credit was phased out completely, with the average transaction price rising by 2% compared to September.
US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) announced that it would shut it Fife ethylene plant in Scotland in February 2026, citing high costs and adverse policies of the UK government, as Europe’s chemical sector continues to shed capacity.
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