Politics not barrels driving global oil market again

President Donald Trump continues to set the mood for oil prices, with the US-India trade deal sending another ripple of uncertainty into the markets regarding the future of Russian oil exports.

Indian refiners have so far kept mum about them stopping said purchases, leaving President Trump to be so far the only public figure to confirm India’s import ban.

Concurrently, US-Iran nuclear talks could heat up the speculative part of the markets, providing a price floor under ICE Brent, currently trading at $67 per barrel.

Market participants expect OPEC+ countries to roll over their production quotas for March 2026, in line with the previously telegraphed freeze on output unwinding in Q1, as $66 per barrel Brent prices remain too low for most members’ budgets.

OPEC+ Keeps Waiting as Prices Dip. Faced with an unpredictable Trump policy on Iran, OPEC+ members voted to keep production quotas flat in March 2026, sticking to their talking point of global oil demand in Q1 being lower than in other periods of the year, with the next meeting set for March 1.

Donald Trump announced that India would halt Russian oil purchases as part of a wider US-India trade deal to lower US tariffs from the current 50% to 18%, however Indian officials have so far refrained from any comments on lower Russian imports.

Russia’s government has lifted a ban on gasoline exports, first introduced in March 2025 after a series of Ukrainian drone strikes damaged Russian refineries, however non-producers (i.e. traders) would still be barred from exporting until July 31.

Malaysia’s Maritime Enforcement Agency claims to have detained two tankers carrying out an illegal STS transfer in its waters, however both the 24-year old Nora and the 20-year old Rcelebra have been seen moving towards Chinese waters after the arrest.

US shale specialists Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN) and Coterra Energy (NYSE:CTRA) have agreed to merge in a $58 billion all-stock deal, expecting to close the deal by Q2 2026 only to continue keeping the Devon name and keep its headquarters in Houston.

US President Trump ordered Mexico to halt crude oil deliveries to Cuba after the White House labelled the island country ‘an unusual and extraordinary threat’ to US national security, sending on average one Aframax tanker per month in 2025.

Libya has set its sight on increasing natural gas exports to Europe by the early 2030s, banking on the return of oil majors to its upstream sector, as the 10 bcm/year capacity Greenstream pipeline to Italy has only been utilized at 10% capacity recently.

Gold prices have posted their largest daily gain in 17 years today, jumping back to $4,920 per ounce after the market started to recover from last week’s massive precious metal sell-off, prompted by Trump’s announcement of the new Federal Reserve chairman.

Nigeria’s 650,000 bld giant Dangote refinery has reached a strategic partnership with China’s state-backed construction company XCMG to jointly develop service solutions for its upcoming petrochemicals expansion, particularly on polypropylene.

The Trump administration has started to build a strategic critical-minerals depository with $12 billion in seed money to counter dependence on China, with the US Ex-Im Bank loaning $10 billion to the joint venture that includes GM, Boeing and Google.

Following the US abduction of President Nicolas Maduro, Venezuela’s oil exports have been steadily recovering and averaged 800,000 b/d in January, with trading houses Vitol and Trafigura accounting for half all exported volumes.

Africa recorded its fastest solar growth in history last year, adding 4.5 GW of new capacity and exceeding industry forecasts, with more than a third of that coming from South Africa alone as other regional powerhouses such as Nigeria lag behind (installing 0.8 GW).

Indonesian miners paused spot coal exports after the country’s authorities issued 2026 individual production quotas some 40-70% lower than last year’s levels, suggesting Jakarta seeks to increase the profitability of mining by generally slashing output.

About The Author

Dele Fashomi

Dele Fashomi, seasoned journalist and communication teacher, is a holder of Master of Arts degree in Communication and Language Arts from the University of Ibadan in 1992/93.

Earlier, he had bagged a Bachelor degree from the same university in 1984, after which he proceeded to the Nigerian Institute of Journalism, Lagos, in 1990, for a postgraduate diploma in Journalism.

He had done many courses in communication, including the EU-BBC Editing Course in 2002.

Mr. Fashomi combines effectively the practice, research and teaching of communication. And to date, he has published two academic works in communication: Issues in Communication Technology and Policy (2010) and Economic and Social Issues in Advertising and PR (2013).

He had his first break in the Nigerian media in Concord Newspapers in 1990 and today, he has over two and half decades experience earned in several newspapers.

He has been part of many start-ups, such as The Republic (1987), The Comet (1999), The Anchor 2001 – 2002; Sun Newspapers (2003); Westerner newsmagazine (2005 – 2010) as Editor; National Life (2011) as Sunday Editor, and Newswatch Newspapers (2012- 2016) as Daily Editor.

Dele Fashomi is now the Publisher/Editor-in-Chief of Newstide247.com newspaper online, which he started in July 2015. He is also into biography writing, with many books in his trail, some of which he wrote alone and one he co- authored with his mentor, Mr Dare Babarinsa, entitled:  Olabiyi Durojaiye – DARE TO BE DiFFERENT. He also guided and collaborated with Pa Olatunji Odusanya in writing his autobiography – AGAINST ALL ODDS. There are many other books in the works under his pen.

See author's posts