Oil
Oil Slips: Iran Talks, Ukraine Blockade, and VLCC Crunch Drive Price Movement
Geneva sets the tone for mid-February trading, concurrently holding two high-stakes negotiations.
The surprisingly positive vibes emanating from US-Iran talks are counterweighed by a much sterner sentiment in the Russia-Ukraine meeting, with the latter being much more bullish for crude amidst intensifying attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure.
ICE Brent has shed more than $1 per barrel after Tehran announced some form of understanding with the US, trading below $68 per barrel, OilPrice.com reports.
Iran has been sending mixed messages to oil markets after Foreign Minister Araqchi claimed to have reached an understanding on main principles with the US, only for Tehran’s IRGC forces to shut parts of the Strait of Hormuz for a couple of hours.
China’s seaborne imports of Russian oil are expected to surpass 2 million b/d for the first time on record, marking a hefty 300,000 b/d increase from the previous all-time high posted this January, as India’s buying of Russian Urals falters.
India’s Coast Guard has seized three OFAC-sanctioned oil tankers linked to Iran, claiming they intercepted the Stellar Ruby, Asphalt Star and Al Jafzia vessels some 100 nautical miles west of Mumbai after detecting suspicious activity in its territorial waters.
The governments of Hungary and Slovakia have turned to Croatia for help in supplying Russian oil through the Adriatic Sea after Ukraine halted transportation of crude through the Druzhba pipeline on January 27, citing damaged infrastructure.
Turkey has sent its deepwater drilling vessel Cagri Bey to Somalia, one of the last untapped exploration frontiers globally, to spud the Curad-1 exploration well in the African country’s maritime zone, expecting to start drilling operations by mid-April.
China’s state-controlled offshore specialist CNOOC (SHA:600938) is in advanced talks with fellow firm Sinochem to take over its 300,000 b/d Quanzhou refinery as well as adjacent retail and storage assets, as the latter posted a $280 million loss in 2025.
Ukraine’s drone strikes on the Russian Black Sea port of Taman are expected to disrupt Russia’s coal exports, sending Europe’s API 2 coal benchmark in Rotterdam to $106 per metric tonne, a 4% weekly gain and the highest price since July 2025.
Global commodity trader Vitol has backed plans to build a 1.8 GW capacity gas-fired power plant along with an LNG import terminal in South Africa’s east coast Durban port, expecting to spend $3 billion on the project as it teams up with Saudi Arabia’s ACWA.
Kenya’s government has postponed plans for an 850-km crude pipeline connecting the upcoming 50,000 b/d South Lokichar project to the country’s coast, whilst also failing to garner finances for the redevelopment of the Mombasa refinery.
Ending its 6-year abstinence from local markets, Mexico’s state oil company Pemex sold a record $1.8 billion worth of local currency debt last week, the highest ever monthly debt issuance in the country’s markets even though February is only halfway through.
Kazakhstan plans to launch a new refinery by 2033 as the Central Asian country struggles to overcome its structural gasoline and diesel deficits, with the new plant rumoured to have a capacity of 200,000 b/d and to be located in the central Ulytau region.
Australia’s top oil producer Santos (ASX:STO) has won a 2021 court case against environmentalists that claimed it misled shareholders on its 2040 net zero commitments, with a federal court in Sydney fully dismissing greenwashing allegations.
The White House announced a new proposal to impose port fees on ships built in third countries, introducing a so-called ‘universal infrastructure security fee’, suggesting a payment of $0.01/kg that could yield $66 billion in revenue over 10 years.
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