Oil
Oil Prices Remain Rangebound as 2024 Closes
The last quarter of 2024 will go down as one of the most rangebound predictable trading periods in recent history as oil prices traded within a very narrow bandwidth, between $71 and $81 per barrel, for three months that have seen a high-impact OPEC+ meeting, Trump’s re-election, and continuous Chinese doom. ICE Brent futures will end the year at $74 per barrel, a $1 per barrel increase month-over-month, in extremely thin trading, Oil price.com reports.
Electricity supply across the island of Puerto Rico has collapsed as more than 90% of households were without power on New Year’s Eve, with lack of investment into post-hurricane infrastructure recovery leaving only one back-up plant generating energy.
US LNG developer Cheniere Energy (NYSE:LNG) announced it produced first liquefied gas from Stage 3 of the Corpus Christi LNG project, with full commissioning of the 1.5 mtpa capacity Train 1 of the liquefaction facility expected by March 30 next year.
The Biden administration approved a request from the US Forest Service to withdraw 264,442 acres in the Ruby Mountains of northeast Nevada from oil, gas and geothermal development for 20 years, less than three weeks before Trump’s inauguration.
The Iraqi government sanctioned the 2.25 million b/d Basrah-Haditha oil pipeline project that would finally connect oil fields in the south of the country with central regions around Baghdad, with a preliminary price tag pencilled in at $4.6 billion.
Russia’s gas major Gazprom said it would suspend all pipeline gas exports to Moldova on January 1 due to the country’s unpaid debt, assessed around 710 million, putting an end to some 2 bcm per year of supplies that have been piped via Ukraine.
The Chinese government plans to raise duties on imported fuel oil from 1 January 2025, lifting the levy from 1% currently to 3%, adding approximately $2 per barrel to the cost of imports for refiners as many used Russian and Iranian fuel oil to replace crude.
US airlines have been one of the top stock performers in the energy space as the S&P Supercomposite Airlines Index jumped 60% in 2024, double the annual gain in the S&P 500 Index, with US travel activity beating all previous records.
Bullish bets on oil reached a 4-month high after hedge funds and other money managers added their long positions by a further 21,694 lots in the week ended December 24, positioning themselves for potential price spikes as Trump returns to office.
European gas prices have soared to €49 per MWh as the Russia-Ukraine transit saga drags on and weather forecasts indicate a sharp drop in temperatures across Northwest Europe in early January, with the cold snap potentially persisting all next month.
Australia’s leading oil producer Santos (ASX:STO) will decommission the Ningaloo Vision FPSO next year, putting an end to production at the heavy Van Gogh, Coniston and Novara offshore fields after less than 15 years in operation.
Nigeria’s 125,000 b/d Warri refinery has resumed operations after a decade of shutdowns, initially blamed on dilapidation and crude shortages, the second NNPC-operated downstream asset in the country that was brought back to life in 2024.
The raw materials bill for an average EV battery now stands around $510 compared to $1900-2000 at the beginning of 2023, driven by lithium’s 75% plunge but also boosted by declining prices for cobalt and nickel, down 34% and 25%, respectively.
Cocoa, the best-performing commodity of 2024 boosting an annual gain of 175%, is set for further growth in 2025 as farmers in Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, reported a deterioriation in crop quality amidst intense rains and Harmattan winds.