Oil markets slow reaction in prices as OPEC+ pumps more  

The post-Easter final countdown is finally here. However, the oil markets’ intense trepidation is yet to be reflected in prices. Having survived the past month of rollercoaster news, there is no surprise by any major market development, even if the current $5 per barrel premium of WTI over ICE Brent would, under normal circumstances, equate to a harbinger of apocalypse.

Perhaps the apocalypse isn’t that far away from us, with US President Trump’s deadline running out today, paving the way for an extremely volatile short-term outlook ahead.

OPEC+ members agreed to hike production targets for May 2026 by another 206,000 b/d, continuing with their gradual unwinding even though most Middle Eastern have shut in more than 10 million b/d of production due to the Hormuz closure, OilPrice.com reports.

Saudi national oil company Saudi Aramco raised the formula prices of its May-loading cargoes destined for Asian buyers by a record $17 per barrel, putting the country’s Arab Light grade at a $19.50/barrel premium to the Oman/Dubai average.

The finance ministers of Germany, Spain, Italy, Portugal and Austria made a joint call for an EU-wide windfall tax on energy companies’ profits in reaction to surging fuel prices and all-time high refined product cracks, mirroring 2022 measures.

The 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery in Nigeria is ramping up exports of gasoline and diesel to neighboring countries in West Africa, with the plant’s top management claiming its operating at maximum capacity for the first time in history.

After Russia’s Baltic Sea ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga resumed loadings following a week-long drone attack, Ukraine’s drone strikes have started to target the key Black Sea port of Novorossiysk this week, temporarily halting some 0.5 million b/d of oil flows.

The Indian government has asked refiners Indian Oil Corp. and Bharat Petroleum to postpone maintenance at their plants to ensure adequate refined product supply in the country, with Nayara’s 400,000 b/d plant out for a month from mid-April.

Two stranded LNG carriers laden with Qatari LNG, the al Daayen and Rasheeda, have attempted to transit the Strait of Hormuz, potentially the first LNG vessels to do so; however, they were turned away by Iran’s Coast Guard and returned to UAE waters.

Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, said that the current oil and gas crisis coming on the back of the US-Iran conflict, is more serious than the ones in 1973, 1979 and 2022 combined, warning of high risks of unrest in developing nations.

After Israel’s army targeted Iranian petrochemical plants on Monday, Iran’s IRGC retaliated by attacking Saudi Arabia’s Jubail petrochemical complex, impacting the $20 billion Sadara joint venture between Aramco and Dow for the second time in a week.

Asia’s desperation for medium sour barrels lifted the price of Russia’s flagship Urals grade to a 13-year high, with cargoes out of the Baltic Sea currently selling for $116 per barrel, almost twice as high as the average $59 per barrel assumed by the Kremlin’s budget.

Chevron and its project partners resumed natural gas production at Israel’s Leviathan offshore field following a 33-day halt mandated by the government after Tel Aviv struck Iran on February 28, with stakeholders demanding downtime compensation from the state.

The Iranian military stated that Iraqi oil exporters would be exempt from shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz; it is unclear if the exemption will apply to Iraqi oil produced by Western companies or just the nation’s tankers.

Taiwan will soon ramp up coal-fired power generation as LNG prices around $20 per MMBtu forced the state-run Taiwan Power Co. to reconsider its heavy reliance on natural gas, aiming to maximize generation from the Mailiao coal plant by May 2026.

The best-performing base metal of March – aluminium – is rising again this week as the LME’s 3-month futures contract surged past $3,500/mt, pushed higher by the UAE’s al Taweelah smelter needing up to a year to repair its recent drone damage.

About The Author

Dele Fashomi

Dele Fashomi, seasoned journalist and communication teacher, is a holder of Master of Arts degree in Communication and Language Arts from the University of Ibadan in 1992/93.

Earlier, he had bagged a Bachelor degree from the same university in 1984, after which he proceeded to the Nigerian Institute of Journalism, Lagos, in 1990, for a postgraduate diploma in Journalism.

He had done many courses in communication, including the EU-BBC Editing Course in 2002.

Mr. Fashomi combines effectively the practice, research and teaching of communication. And to date, he has published two academic works in communication: Issues in Communication Technology and Policy (2010) and Economic and Social Issues in Advertising and PR (2013).

He had his first break in the Nigerian media in Concord Newspapers in 1990 and today, he has over two and half decades experience earned in several newspapers.

He has been part of many start-ups, such as The Republic (1987), The Comet (1999), The Anchor 2001 – 2002; Sun Newspapers (2003); Westerner newsmagazine (2005 – 2010) as Editor; National Life (2011) as Sunday Editor, and Newswatch Newspapers (2012- 2016) as Daily Editor.

Dele Fashomi is now the Publisher/Editor-in-Chief of Newstide247.com newspaper online, which he started in July 2015. He is also into biography writing, with many books in his trail, some of which he wrote alone and one he co- authored with his mentor, Mr Dare Babarinsa, entitled:  Olabiyi Durojaiye – DARE TO BE DiFFERENT. He also guided and collaborated with Pa Olatunji Odusanya in writing his autobiography – AGAINST ALL ODDS. There are many other books in the works under his pen.

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