Oil
Oil markets on the edge as diplomacy yields little, brent hovers around $72 per barrel
US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva or embassy evacuations aside, the oil markets are still on the edge as yet another week has passed without anything substantial happening between the Trump administration and Iran. ICE Brent continues to hover around $72 per barrel, brushing aside macroeconomic concerns following Trump’s threats of raising temporary import tariffs from 10% to 15%.
US investment bank Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) has lifted its 2026 price forecast for Brent and WTI by $8 per barrel to $64 and $60 per barrel, respectively, even though it assumes no Iran supply disruptions and OPEC+ restarting its crude production hikes.
Freight cost for very large crude tankers sailing from the Middle East to China has tripled since the beginning of this year, with daily charter rates for VLCC freight now assessed at $170,000 per day, the highest since the contango frenzy of April 2020.
US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) has signed a preliminary agreement with Iraq’s state-run Basra Oil (BOC) to explore potential involvement in the 480,000 b/d West Qurna-2 oil field, taking over from Russia’s major Lukoil that was forced out by sanctions.
Saudi national oil company Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) has sold several cargoes of its ultra-light oil grade from its $100 billion Jafurah project to Indian and Korean refiners, pricing it $2-3 per barrel above benchmark Dubai quotes.
The Trump administration stated that it would roll back the Biden-era 2024 Mercury and Air Toxics Standard, loosening regulations on mercury emissions and hazardous toxins from coal-fueled power plants, citing the need to alleviate rising power costs.
The US Supreme Court will decide this week whether to allow oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) to claim more than $1 billion in compensation from Cuban state-owned entities for the seizure of its energy assets by the Fidel Castro government in 1960.
The 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery in Lekki, owned by Africa’s richest man Aliko Dangote, is preparing for an IPO with regional media suggesting the initial offering would happen within the next five months, marking one of the largest listings in Nigeria.
Ukraine’s army has struck a crude oil pumping station in Russia’s Tatarstan region, part of the Druzhba (‘Friendship’) pipeline system that has been offline for a month as both Slovakia and Hungary accuse Kyiv of deliberately withholding oil deliveries
Global oil majors operating Kazakhstan’s second-largest Kashagan field have filed for international arbitration after the Kazakh government slapped a more than $5 billion for breaching sulphur-stockpiling regulations and lost revenue.
The benchmark three-month LME copper futures rose to $13,100 per metric tonne, the highest in two weeks, after trading activity in the metal picked up on the return of Chinese buyers to the market, with the Lunar New Year holidays largely over.
The governments of Brazil and India signed a framework agreement on the joint development of critical minerals and subsequent processing, as most consumers seek to reduce their reliance on China amidst Beijing’s export quota system.
Trading houses Vitol and Trafigura have started chartering their own VLCCs for the delivery of Venezuelan cargoes to India, the first such ships to be fixed since Caracas and Washington agreed to a $2 billion supply deal in January 2026.
Kuwait’s national oil firm KPC is in talks with a group of investment funds comprising BlackRock, Brookfield Asset Management, EIG and buyout group KKR to sell a $7 billion stake in its crude oil pipeline system, potentially reaching a deal by the end of the month.
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