Oil
Oil markets on edge as Washington, Tehran drift toward confrontation
Oil prices have edged higher so far in the second trading week of February, with ICE Brent pushing towards $70 per barrel on rising expectations of US-Iran confrontation.
After the failure of nuclear talks in Oman to bridge the gap between the two sides, the US Department of Transportation has boosted oil bulls with its guidance to any US-flagged commercial vessels to avoid Iranian waters and decline permission to board if asked.
Could this be a prelude to another series of US strikes on Iran?
According to S&P Global, OPEC+ production dipped in January to 42.56 million b/day, a 270,000 b/day decline compared to December levels and the first monthly drop in 13 months, driven by output cuts in Kazakhstan, Russia, Nigeria and Libya, OilPrice.com reports.
Venezuela’s PDVSA has reversed most of its production cuts, implemented as a precautionary measure vis-à-vis the Trump administration’s pressure policy in November-December, reporting that its oil output in the Orinoco Belt is now close to 1 million b/d.
The government of Namibia said it would not recognize the recent purchase of stakes in the PEL 104 exploration license offshore Namibia by TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) and Petrobras (NYSE:PBR), claiming that the majors were ‘not following due procedure’.
EIA monthly figures show that US crude oil production in November dropped by 82,000 b/d from the all-time high of October at 13.78 million b/d, putting it on a trajectory for three straight monthly declines as cold snaps impacted December-January supply.
According to Reuters, some of India’s top refiners – IOC, BPCL and Reliance – will avoid placing any nominations for Russian oil barrels delivered in April, seeking to placate the Trump administration as Delhi hopes to clinch a trade deal by end-March.
Chinese independent refineries, mostly located in the northeastern Shandong Province, slashed their imports of Iranian crude to 1.17 million b/d in January, with higher Russian incoming volumes increasingly squeezing out inflows from Iran.
Oil output at the Chevron-operated (NYSE:CVX) giant Tengiz field in Kazakhstan, hampered by a fire incident at its power facilities on January 18, has been recovering gradually and currently stands at 550,000 b/d, or 60% of its nameplate capacity.
The European Commission has proposed extending sanctions against Russia to also include Georgia’s Kulevi and Indonesia’s Karimun ports for allegedly handling Russian oil, the first time that Brussels would target infrastructure in third countries.
QatarEnergy has pushed back the start of its giant 32 mtpa North Field East expansion project, developed at an estimated cost of $29 billion, towards the end of 2026 and could potentially launch it in early 2027 if construction delays continue.
New Zealand expects to commission its first-ever LNG import terminal by early 2028 as the island nation’s government is assessing commercial proposals for contracting, with recurring draughts prompting its buyers to turn towards coal imports.
The US Navy has seized the eighth Venezuelan tanker in 2026 to date, boarding the Aquila II tanker in the Indian Ocean as it was nearing Indonesian waters, with the vessel having reportedly loaded a cargo of high-sulfur fuel oil in early December 2025.
Nigeria’s national oil company NNPC is reportedly in advanced negotiations with China’s state-controlled Sinopec (SHA:600028) to take up minority stakes in three of its idled refineries, the 125,000 b/d Warri plant and two in Port Harcourt.
Attesting to Africa’s increasingly protectionist policies, the Democratic Republic of Congo informed miners that it would, from now on, enforce a long-dormant rule that required a 5% local employee ownership in operating cobalt and copper mines.
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