Oil
Oil markets: Hormuz reopens as traders price out war premium, brent sells below $80 per barrel
The US-Iran deal providing for the immediate re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the US maritime blockade on Iran has been signed by US President Trump, Vice President Vance and Iran’s parliamentary speaker Qalibaf, sending Brent futures below $80 per barrel for the first time in more than 4 months.
Unless derailed by another Israeli attack on Lebanon, oil markets could finally leave the conflict behind and ‘let the oil flow’.
Talking on the sidelines of the G7 summit in France, US President Trump claimed that the US would not be investing in Iran as part of the temporary peace agreement, however said there could be ‘huge opportunities’ in Iran once the peace deal is done.
The UAE’s national oil company ADNOC has sold at least 30 million barrels of spot crude to Asian refiners and traders so far in June, boosting Middle Eastern supply at a time when the return of stranded Gulf barrels is leading to a regional overflow of oil.
Australia’s upstream major Woodside (ASX:WDS) announced that it was not aware of any proposal involving US oil giant ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) after rumours started circulating about it becoming a potential takeover target for the Texas-based major.
Crude volumes held in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve dropped to its lowest level since 1983, coming in at 340.2 million barrels as of June 12, creating a headache for the White House as it needs to sell further 88 MMbbls in fiscal years 2028-2031.
The Turkish government has warned that it did not want an extension of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, bringing Kurdish oil to the Mediterranean, under current conditions as its terms have been subjected to arbitration, with the contract running out July 27.
China’s coal production dipped by 1.7% from a year earlier to 397.22 million metric tonnes, brought lower by widespread clampdowns on mine safety following the May 22 disaster at the Liushenyu coal mine that killed 82 miners.
Global banks have reacted immediately to the prospect of a US-Iran peace deal as Goldman Sachs is now expecting Brent to average $80 per barrel in Q4 2026, down $10 per barrel from its previous forecast, a prediction mirrored by Morgan Stanley.
The four-week average of Russia’s seaborne crude exports shot up to 3.83 million b/d, the highest pace for the year so far, with Ukraine hitting six refineries so far in June, prompting more oil towards the country’s crude export terminals.
The Japanese government is assessing the physical impact of the ongoing Ichthys LNG industrial action that might paralyze exports from the Australian LNG terminal after a court rejected Inpex’s bid to block the worker’s strike, extended until July 6.
The UK is set to receive its first tanker of Indian jet fuel since January, following a May government decision to temporarily lift its ban on fuels made using Russian crude, with the Solo tanker carrying 500,000 barrels of kerosene from Reliance’s Jamnagar refinery.
QatarEnergy has expressed its readiness to resume liquefied natural gas production at its Ras Laffan LNG plant, stating that it could reach full capacity output at trains not damaged by Iranian drone strikes (12 out of 14) within the next month.
US spot natural gas prices at the key Waha hub of West Texas turned positive for the first time since early February 2026 as rising cooling demand for natural gas and the end of spring pipeline maintenance saw pushed them to $0.42 per MMBtu.
Aluminium fell to a 2-month low following news of a preliminary US-Iran deal, with the benchmark LME three-month contract dipping 5% to $3,350 per metric tonne as Bahraini and UAE aluminium could find its way to global markets again.
The Indian government has increased export levies on diesel and jet fuel, despite hopes of a re-opening Strait of Hormuz, lifting them to $24 per barrel and $21 per barrel, respectively, as the country’s domestic transportation fuel demand continues to rise.
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