Oil Markets Are Bracing for Another External Shock

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Oil producers are preparing for another external shock to oil markets as Brent futures took some collateral damage from Monday’s equity sell-off and remain pressured by the prospect of a potential US-Iran nuclear deal. For the time being, the $66-67 per barrel price for ICE Brent seems to be a temporary resting place for crude before the next big thing happens, OilPrice.com reports.

Negotiators from the United States and Iran met in Italy’s capital, Rome, over the weekend to continue negotiations started a week ago in Oman over Tehran’s nuclear programme, with both sides lauding the progress the talks had made over the past week.

As the US Bureau of Ocean Energy Management recently upped the Gulf of America’s untapped reserves to 5.77 billion barrels, the Trump administration has launched a new 5-year offshore oil and gas leasing plan, which might include blocks in the Arctic.

Amidst widespread speculation of Donald Trump wanting to fire US Fed chair Jerome Powell, gold prices touched $3,500 per ounce for the first time on record in Tuesday’s intraday trading, up 32% since the beginning of the year.

China’s state-controlled oil majors CNOOC and Zhenhua Oil, as well as privately owned ENN Natural Gas, have all signed term deals with the UAE’s state oil company ADNOC, ranging from 5 to 15 years and coming into effect as early as 2026.

An array of international energy firms have exited their respective concessions in Egypt’s offshore zone in the Red Sea after US oil firm Chevron relinquished its stake in Block 1, with rumours also suggesting Shell is set to give up on the adjacent Block 3.

Leading US refiner Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) has issued a letter demanding that activist investor Elliott Investment Management back down from its push to break up the company due to a conflict of interest, as it is separately seeking to buy distressed Citgo.

The government of India announced a 12% tariff on some steel imports from China that would be valid for the next 200 days, arguing that a flood of cheaper Chinese steel products put domestic mills under immense pressure and forced job cuts.

South Korea’s leading steel manufacturer, Posco Holdings (NYSE:PKX), is reportedly planning to join its peer, Hyundai Motor Group (KRX:005380), to build a $5.8 billion steel mill in the US, expected to start operations in 2029 in Louisiana.

The ouster of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has led to a complete halt in Iranian oil deliveries to the Levantine nation. In its stead, Damascus has opted for Russian crude and diesel deliveries as Moscow wants to keep its Tartus naval base.

Chinese production of refined copper surged to 1.25 million tonnes in March, up 8.6% from a year ago and hitting a new all-time monthly high, with minimal profitability somewhat cushioned by higher gold prices, a co-product of copper smelting.

Saudi Aramco, the national oil firm of Saudi Arabia, inked a deal with China’s leading EV producer BYD (SHE:002594) to develop new energy vehicle technologies, seeking to benefit from the proliferation of battery-powered cars across Asia.

Easter precipitation has finally allowed German shippers to transport full cargoes along the River Rhine, the country’s main energy transportation artery, with water levels in Kaub rising by 40% to 125cm.

The North African country of Morocco is preparing to begin tendering procedures for its first-ever liquefaction terminal, to be located in the port of Nador, as its gas requirements are expected to soar from 1 Bcm currently to 8 Bcm by 2027.