Oil and gas
Nigeria’s power outages persist as gas supply shortfall hits 57%, grid generation drops to 4,300MW
The Nigerian Independent System Operator has attributed the prolonged power outages across the country to severe gas supply constraints affecting thermal power plants, revealing that gas deliveries currently stand at less than 43 per cent of required volumes.
In a statement titled “Declining Power Output Attributable to Generation Shortfalls and Gas Supply Limitations” released on its official X handle on Friday, the system operator announced that average available generation now hovers around 4,300 megawatts—significantly below Nigeria’s installed capacity.
The lingering outages began in early February following scheduled maintenance on key gas supply infrastructure by Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and Seplat Energy, which temporarily disrupted gas deliveries to several thermal plants and triggered a nationwide drop in electricity generation. The situation has persisted due to continued gas supply constraints.
The statement, signed by NISO Management, explained that the development stems directly from severe gas limitations affecting thermal generating stations, which constitute the dominant share of Nigeria’s electricity generation mix.
“We hereby notify the general public and all market participants that the current average available generation of approximately 4,300MW is primarily due to inadequate gas supply to thermal generating stations,” the operator stated.
It emphasised that because thermal plants form the backbone of grid supply, any disruption in gas availability automatically translates into lower generation and weaker energy allocation to Distribution Companies.
“Given that thermal plants account for the dominant share of Nigeria’s generation mix, any disruption or limitation in gas supply directly affects available generation capacity and overall grid output,” the statement read.
Providing operational data, NISO disclosed that thermal power plants collectively require an estimated 1,629.75 million standard cubic feet of gas per day to function at optimal capacity. However, as of February 23, 2026, actual gas supply stood at approximately 692.00 million standard cubic feet per day—a deficit the operator described as significant.
“The available gas supply represents less than 43 per cent of the required volume, resulting in constrained generation output. The current low generation level is fundamentally driven by inadequate gas supply to thermal generating units, leading to reduced energy allocation to the DisCos,” it stated.
With supply falling short of demand, NISO confirmed it has been compelled to implement load shedding to stabilise the grid.
“When total system generation drops significantly, the Independent System Operator must implement load shedding across the system, while dispatching available energy in line with the NERC MYTO allocation percentages across all distribution networks to maintain grid stability and prevent system disturbances,” the statement added.
The operator expressed regret over the inconvenience but assured that it is engaging relevant stakeholders to restore supply levels.
“While we regret the inconvenience this situation may cause electricity consumers and affected market participants, we will continue to work closely with relevant stakeholders to ensure full energy allocation as soon as gas supply improves and generation capacity is restored,” it stated.
Nigeria’s power sector remains heavily dependent on gas-fired thermal plants, which account for over 70 per cent of grid electricity. This structural reliance means that disruptions in gas production, pipeline vandalism, maintenance shutdowns, or payment shortfalls often trigger nationwide supply constraints.
With national peak demand estimated at well above 20,000MW, the current 4,300MW average generation underscores the significant supply gap confronting Africa’s most populous nation. A sustained improvement will depend not only on grid management reforms but also on securing stable and commercially viable gas supply arrangements to thermal plants.
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