Nigeria’s Poverty Rate to Worsen by 2027, World Bank Warns

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The World Bank has projected that more Nigerians will fall into poverty by 2027, despite the country’s vast natural resources. This forecast was included in the *Africa Pulse* report, released during the ongoing IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington DC.

According to the report, sub-Saharan Africa remains the global epicenter of extreme poverty, with a disproportionate number of the world’s poorest people concentrated in just a few nations. In 2024, an estimated 80% of the world’s 695 million extreme poor lived in the region, far surpassing South Asia (8%), East Asia and the Pacific (2%), the Middle East and North Africa (5%), and Latin America and the Caribbean (3%).

The World Bank noted that half of sub-Saharan Africa’s 560 million extreme poor reside in just four countries. While non-resource-rich nations are making faster progress in poverty reduction, resource-rich but fragile economies like Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) are expected to see poverty rise by 3.6 percentage points between 2022 and 2027.

“Resource-rich, fragile countries—including Nigeria and the DRC—have the highest poverty rates, averaging 46% in 2024, which is 13 percentage points higher than non-fragile, resource-rich nations,” the report stated. In contrast, non-resource-rich, stable countries have achieved the most significant poverty reductions since 2000.

Urbanization as a Potential Solution

The World Bank highlighted that rapid urbanization could help accelerate poverty reduction in Africa—if managed effectively. Although rural areas currently hold most of the continent’s poor, urban populations are projected to grow by over 238 million by 2035, overtaking rural populations.

Between 2010 and 2019, poverty reduction was primarily driven by rural-to-urban migration rather than improvements within rural or urban areas themselves. However, the report cautioned that success hinges on cities’ ability to provide adequate infrastructure, services, and job opportunities for the expanding urban population.

Without these critical investments, the potential benefits of urbanization may remain unrealized, leaving millions trapped in poverty.