Economic analysts project Nigeria’s headline inflation will rise to between 17.0% and 17.9% by November 2025, with temporary spikes expected in July and August due to seasonal farming disruptions.
While macroeconomic stabilization and base effects may ease pressures later in the year, food inflation remains vulnerable to flooding in southern states and lean harvests in the north.
Short-Term Inflation Outlook for July 2025 forecast: 21.71% – 21.88% year-on-year; August 2025 forecast: 21.28% – 21.63% year-on-year; Core inflation (excluding volatile items) to hold steady at 1.1% – 1.3% monthly, supported by stable energy costs and naira performance.
A potential December inflation spike could push rates as high as 34% year-on-year, depending on whether the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) uses the rebased CPI (15.44% in Dec 2024) or the old benchmark (34.8%) for comparison.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is expected to maintain tight policy at its July 21-22 MPC meeting, keeping interest rates elevated to combat inflation.
Analysts suggest that rate cuts unlikely before September 2025, potential reduction of 150-200 basis points later in the year, possible adjustment to the MPR corridor** (currently +500/-100 bps) to signal policy easing.
The CBN’s cautious approach follows 875 basis points of aggressive rate hikes earlier in 2025, as policymakers balance inflation control with economic growth concerns.
Dele Fashomi, seasoned journalist and communication teacher, is a holder of Master of Arts degree in Communication and Language Arts from the University of Ibadan in 1992/93.
Earlier, he had bagged a Bachelor degree from the same university in 1984, after which he proceeded to the Nigerian Institute of Journalism, Lagos, in 1990, for a postgraduate diploma in Journalism.
He had done many courses in communication, including the EU-BBC Editing Course in 2002.
Mr. Fashomi combines effectively the practice, research and teaching of communication. And to date, he has published two academic works in communication: Issues in Communication Technology and Policy (2010) and Economic and Social Issues in Advertising and PR (2013).
He had his first break in the Nigerian media in Concord Newspapers in 1990 and today, he has over two and half decades experience earned in several newspapers.
He has been part of many start-ups, such as The Republic (1987), The Comet (1999), The Anchor 2001 – 2002; Sun Newspapers (2003); Westerner newsmagazine (2005 – 2010) as Editor; National Life (2011) as Sunday Editor, and Newswatch Newspapers (2012- 2016) as Daily Editor.
Dele Fashomi is now the Publisher/Editor-in-Chief of Newstide247.com newspaper online, which he started in July 2015. He is also into biography writing, with many books in his trail, some of which he wrote alone and one he co- authored with his mentor, Mr Dare Babarinsa, entitled: Olabiyi Durojaiye – DARE TO BE DiFFERENT. He also guided and collaborated with Pa Olatunji Odusanya in writing his autobiography – AGAINST ALL ODDS. There are many other books in the works under his pen.
