Nigeria’s GDP rises 3.89% in Q1 2026 as oil, on-oil sectors strengthen

Nigeria’s economy recorded a broad-based recovery in the first quarter of the year, with gross domestic product (GDP) expanding by 3.89% — a 76 basis point increase from the 3.13% posted in the same period of 2025.

According to the Q1 2026 GDP report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the growth was driven by a strong rebound in both the oil and non-oil sectors.

The oil sector grew by 2.57% in Q1 2026, up from 1.87% in Q1 2025, reflecting a recovery in domestic crude oil production.

Meanwhile, the non-oil sector expanded by 3.94% compared to 3.19% a year earlier, buoyed by a sharp turnaround in agriculture and resilient activity in industry and real estate.

A sectoral breakdown shows agriculture — which had been nearly flat at 0.07% in Q1 2025 — quadrupled to 3.15% growth in Q1 2026, thanks to better crop production.

The industrial sector grew by 3.50% in Q1 2026, marginally above the 3.42% recorded in Q1 2025. Services growth stood at 4.31%, slightly below the 4.33% seen a year earlier, yet services remained the largest contributor to overall GDP, accounting for 57.73% compared to 57.50% in Q1 2025.

In nominal terms, total GDP rose by 17.8% year-on-year, from N94.05 trillion in Q1 2025 to N110.79 trillion in Q1 2026.

Experts said the real GDP performance aligned with broad expectations, reflecting continuing gains from macroeconomic reforms on both fiscal and monetary fronts.

Analysts at SCM Capital noted that the Q1 2026 performance points to steady improvements across key sectors, supported by post-recapitalisation liquidity and structural adaptations.

Coronation Group described the GDP outcome as broadly in line with its 3.91% projection, pointing to sustained economic resilience, with growth largely driven by services along with gradual gains in non-oil activities.

The NBS report highlighted that oil sector growth was driven mainly by higher crude prices, even as average daily oil production slipped to 1.55 million barrels per day (mbpd) in Q1 2026 from 1.62 mbpd in Q1 2025 and 1.58 mbpd in Q4 2025.

The oil sector’s share of real GDP edged down to 3.92% from 3.97% a year earlier. Still, the Q1 2026 figure marked an improvement over the 2.87% growth recorded in Q4 2025.

Manufacturing sector real GDP growth stood at 3.29% in Q1 2026 — 1.60 percentage points higher than in Q1 2025 and 2.17 points above Q4 2025. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, manufacturing expanded by 3.59%. Its real contribution to GDP in Q1 2026 was 9.57%, down from 9.62% in Q1 2025 but up from 7.40% in the previous quarter.

About The Author

Dele Fashomi

Dele Fashomi, seasoned journalist and communication teacher, is a holder of Master of Arts degree in Communication and Language Arts from the University of Ibadan in 1992/93.

Earlier, he had bagged a Bachelor degree from the same university in 1984, after which he proceeded to the Nigerian Institute of Journalism, Lagos, in 1990, for a postgraduate diploma in Journalism.

He had done many courses in communication, including the EU-BBC Editing Course in 2002.

Mr. Fashomi combines effectively the practice, research and teaching of communication. And to date, he has published two academic works in communication: Issues in Communication Technology and Policy (2010) and Economic and Social Issues in Advertising and PR (2013).

He had his first break in the Nigerian media in Concord Newspapers in 1990 and today, he has over two and half decades experience earned in several newspapers.

He has been part of many start-ups, such as The Republic (1987), The Comet (1999), The Anchor 2001 – 2002; Sun Newspapers (2003); Westerner newsmagazine (2005 – 2010) as Editor; National Life (2011) as Sunday Editor, and Newswatch Newspapers (2012- 2016) as Daily Editor.

Dele Fashomi is now the Publisher/Editor-in-Chief of Newstide247.com newspaper online, which he started in July 2015. He is also into biography writing, with many books in his trail, some of which he wrote alone and one he co- authored with his mentor, Mr Dare Babarinsa, entitled:  Olabiyi Durojaiye – DARE TO BE DiFFERENT. He also guided and collaborated with Pa Olatunji Odusanya in writing his autobiography – AGAINST ALL ODDS. There are many other books in the works under his pen.

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