Nigeria Targets Major Oil Output Boost, Aims for 2.5m Barrels per Day by 2026

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has announced an ambitious plan to increase the nation’s crude oil production to 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2026.

This strategy hinges on developing untapped deepwater reserves, revitalizing inactive onshore and offshore fields, and expediting regulatory approvals for pending projects.

Achieving this target would mark Nigeria’s most substantial production increase in over a decade.

However, the goal is highly ambitious given recent output levels. Over the past five years, production has averaged just 1.57 million bpd, severely constrained by chronic underinvestment and pervasive security issues like oil theft and pipeline vandalism in the Niger Delta.

These challenges have driven many international oil companies (IOCs) to shift their investments away from onshore assets toward deepwater projects.

There has been some recent improvement, with production averaging approximately 1.68 million bpd this year.

This recovery is credited to government initiatives to combat crude theft, including enhanced pipeline surveillance, and the regulatory certainty provided by the landmark Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), which aims to boost long-term investor confidence.

Despite this progress, analysts express caution regarding the 2026 target. Given the persistent structural and security hurdles, near-term growth is expected to be modest, with projections for next year averaging around 1.77 million bpd. Reaching the 2.5 million bpd goal will require sustained, multi-year efforts.

Success is contingent on significantly increased IOC investment in deepwater projects—which hold the potential to add over 800,000 bpd—and effective action by local operators to revive stranded and newly acquired onshore fields.

About The Author

Dele Fashomi

Dele Fashomi, seasoned journalist and communication teacher, is a holder of Master of Arts degree in Communication and Language Arts from the University of Ibadan in 1992/93.

Earlier, he had bagged a Bachelor degree from the same university in 1984, after which he proceeded to the Nigerian Institute of Journalism, Lagos, in 1990, for a postgraduate diploma in Journalism.

He had done many courses in communication, including the EU-BBC Editing Course in 2002.

Mr. Fashomi combines effectively the practice, research and teaching of communication. And to date, he has published two academic works in communication: Issues in Communication Technology and Policy (2010) and Economic and Social Issues in Advertising and PR (2013).

He had his first break in the Nigerian media in Concord Newspapers in 1990 and today, he has over two and half decades experience earned in several newspapers.

He has been part of many start-ups, such as The Republic (1987), The Comet (1999), The Anchor 2001 – 2002; Sun Newspapers (2003); Westerner newsmagazine (2005 – 2010) as Editor; National Life (2011) as Sunday Editor, and Newswatch Newspapers (2012- 2016) as Daily Editor.

Dele Fashomi is now the Publisher/Editor-in-Chief of Newstide247.com newspaper online, which he started in July 2015. He is also into biography writing, with many books in his trail, some of which he wrote alone and one he co- authored with his mentor, Mr Dare Babarinsa, entitled:  Olabiyi Durojaiye – DARE TO BE DiFFERENT. He also guided and collaborated with Pa Olatunji Odusanya in writing his autobiography – AGAINST ALL ODDS. There are many other books in the works under his pen.

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