Oil
Markets Price Chaos as Oil Finds Its Footing
Social unrest in Iran, Trump’s 25% extra tariff on buyers of Iranian crude, confusion over Venezuela’s oil exports, and repeated strikes on tankers in the Black Sea have prompted an impressive recovery in oil prices, with ICE Brent bouncing back to $65 per barrel. At the same time, there has been no physical impact on production (perhaps excepting Kazakhstan, the least talked-about subject on the list of disruptions); therefore, it would only take one IEA report for the markets to start talking about oversupply again.
Global trading giant Vitol and Trafigura have started offering Venezuelan crude cargoes to Indian and Chinese refiners, to be delivered in March, acting quicker than US oil majors that have voiced their reservations about a potential hasty return, OilPrice.com reports.
Trump’s maritime blockade of Venezuela and tighter US sanctions on Iran have lowered supply in both countries, leading to OPEC production declining month-on-month by 100,000 b/d to 28.4 million b/d instead of a planned 85,000 b/d increase.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the White House could start lifting sanctions on Venezuela as soon as next week to facilitate oil sales and that the Trump administration would be meeting with the World Bank and IMF to re-engage them.
Indonesia’s President Subianto inaugurated the $7.5 billion upgrade on the country’s key Balikpapan refinery, taking its capacity from 260,000 b/d to 360,000 b/d, promising that the country will no longer import gasoline, without providing a timeline.
After Iran turned off the nationwide internet last week, loading activities in the country’s two main crude export terminals were disrupted, yet media reports show sales of Iranian crude to China continue unimpeded, with prices around a -$9 per barrel to Brent.
US downstream giant Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO) decided to cease refining operations at its 145,000 b/d Benicia refinery in California at the end of February, two months ahead of its initial deadline as it seeks to avoid any additional turnarounds.
Less than two months after a Ukrainian drone attack debilitated Kazakh crude loadings from the CPC terminal located in Russia, three Greek-operated oil tankers were hit by drones in the Black Sea this week, en route to load Kazakh-produced barrels.
A US federal judge overturned Donald Trump’s ban on the nearly finished $5 billion Revolution Wind project, allowing the operator Orsted (COP:ORSTED) to resume work in defiance of the Interior Dept’s December 22 suspension order.
Norway’s Energy Ministry has awarded stakes in 57 offshore oil and gas exploration licences to 19 licences in its annual 2026 licensing round, with most of upcoming drilling activity still centred around the North Sea with only 5 blocks in the Barents Sea.
In a sign to appease US President Donald Trump, Iranian authorities have released the St. Nikolas tanker, operated by the Greek Empire Navigation, having seized it in Omani waters in January 2024 for what Tehran alleged was US ‘theft’ of Iranian oil.
Gold prices have posted another record high this week, hitting $4,629 per ounce in the Monday trading session, with the US December inflation data coming in flat at 2.7% only confirming expectations of two Fed interest rate cuts in 2026.
The provincial government of Newfoundland is expediting approvals to facilitate a late Q1 FID for Equinor’s (NYSE:EQNR) Bay du Nord offshore deepwater project in Canada’s Atlantic waters, aiming for first oil from the 200,000 b/d field by 2030-2031.
South Korea’s Climate and Energy Ministry plans to increase nuclear power generation to a 15-year high in 2026, boosting the utilization rate of its reactors to 89% (from 84.6% in 2025), seeking to lower LNG import requirements and restrict coal utilization.
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