Oil
Holiday Markets Eye War Risks but Oil Refuses to Break Out
In the relatively uneventful period between Christmas and New Year, Russia-Ukraine peace talks were the main geopolitical driver. Ukraine’s alleged targeting of Putin’s residence and Moscow’s pledge to change its negotiating strategy brought yet another wave of disappointment to those eyeing a resolution to the four-year-long conflict, capping ICE Brent at $62 per barrel.
An all-out-war in Yemen could provide a new geopolitical risk to oil, however the physical impact thereof remains questionable, OilPrice.com reports.
Saudi Arabia’s national oil firm Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) is expected to cut its formula prices for February-loading cargoes going to Asia by up to 30 cents per barrel, slashing prices further despite dipping to a 5-year low last month.
China’s Commerce Ministry has issued its first batch of crude oil import quotas for 2026, allocating 206 million metric tonnes or 4.14 million b/d to qualified refineries, putting the overall allocation some 8% higher than a year ago as new private refiners boost runs.
The government of India is seeking more than $30 billion in compensation from a consortium comprising Reliance Industries and BP (NYSE:BP), claiming they failed to produce promised volumes from two deepwater fields, D1 and D3.
Oil production in Kazakhstan dropped by 6% month-on-month in December to 1.93 million b/d, following a November 29 drone attack on the CPC terminal on Russia’s Black Sea Coast, with curbs mostly coming from the Chevron-operated Tengiz field.
Nigeria’s state oil company NNPC is reportedly planning to sell stakes in some of its oil and gas assets, offering potential bidders to disclose their interest by January 10 despite ongoing protests from the African country’s powerful trade unions.
Russia’s government has extended its temporary ban on gasoline exports until 28 February 2026 as a precautionary measure vis-à-vis Ukrainian drone strikes, having already halved exports of the transportation fuel to 50,000 b/d in 2025.
Ghana’s state-owned 45,000 b/d Tema refinery has resumed operations this week after a 5-year hiatus as a means to combat soaring imports of petroleum products from Nigeria’s 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery that sent 30,000 b/d of fuel in 2025.
Canada’s first LNG export plant, Shell-operated (LON:SHEL) LNG Canada, struggles to make good on initial promises as there has been no cargo loading LNG in Kitimat in three weeks despite the operator claiming both liquefaction trains were up and running.
China’s ‘anti-involution’ campaign to combat overcapacity will extend into the country’s copper and alumina industries as Beijing vowed to tighten oversight over the metal industry, with both copper and alumina hitting all-time highs in 2025.
Brazil’s Superior Labour Court has mandated that staffing levels remain at a minimum of 80% across all Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) facilities as the Brazilian state oil firm’s largest trade union rejected its latest proposal to end the ongoing three-week strike.
Syria’s Petroleum Company announced that the war-torn country will resume exploration drilling to boost domestic gas production in Q1 2026, planning to drill four wells around the capital city of Damascus.
Delayed weekly data from the US Energy Information Administration show that American exports of petroleum products soared to a new all-time high of 7.8 million b/d in the week ending December 19, taking the usual year-end destocking to a new level.
China’s passenger car association expects demand for lithium batteries to slump by at least 30% as Beijing’s tax incentives for EV purchases are gradually phased out, capping lithium’s stellar 35% rally in December as lithium carbonate rose to $16,850/mt.
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