Bullish Catalysts Build in Global Oil Markets But Prices Remain Rangebound

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Thanksgiving has disrupted a highly eventful week that saw OPEC+ ramp up its shuttle diplomacy as the oil group postponed its December 1 meeting. Despite that move, ICE Brent settlements moved in a very narrow bandwidth of less than $1 per barrel all week, between $72 and $73 per barrel. As the Russia-Ukraine war intensifies and Iran comes to the forefront of Trump’s policy moves, geopolitics could make a surprise comeback in December, complementing OPEC+’s decisions and pushing oil prices higher.

OPEC+ has delayed its upcoming policy meeting to December 5 as members are reportedly discussing postponing the anticipated output hike due to start in January 2025, simultaneously coordinating the future of compensation cuts with Iraq and Kazakhstan.

Iran has notified the International Atomic Energy Agency that it would seek to install more than 6,000 additional uranium-enriching centrifuges at its enrichment plants, according to an IAEA internal report, raising the risks of confrontation with Tehran.

Russia attacked Ukraine’s energy assets with 91 missiles and 97 drones this week in the second largest attack of the past month, with over 1 million people losing power in the immediate aftermath of the strikes and damages reported in 9 regions.

Brazilian firm Matrix Energia and French oil major TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) confirmed the first deal to supply shale gas from Argentina’s Vaca Muerta patch to Brazil via Bolivia’s gas grid as the latter’s gas exports to Argentina ceased in September.

The new Indonesian government is in negotiations with the United States and Russia on acquiring nuclear technologies for power plants, seeking to start operating its first unit as early as 2036, despite a very pressing seismic risk across most of its islands.

Italy’s oil major ENI (BIT:ENI) managed to lock in four new exploration contracts offshore Ivory Coast, boosting its presence in the country after its 2.5 BBbls Baleine and 1.5 BBbls Calao discoveries, with the new contracts giving it nine years to explore.

Members of the European Union approved the imposition of anti-dumping duties on titanium dioxide from China, provisionally setting the tariffs between 14.4% and 39.7% as China’s share rose to almost 25% lately in the product mostly used in paints and printing.

US President-elect Donald Trump is reportedly considering placing secondary sanctions on Iraq, terminating Baghdad’s sanction waivers to import Iranian gas, sanctioning individuals across the country’s energy sector, and clamping down on fuel smuggling from the country.

Since September, vessel transits through the Panama Canal rose to 730-740 per month, the highest traction in a year with LPG flows ramping up to previously unseen levels, although more available tonnage also resulted in lower VLGC freight rates.

Mexico’s embattled state oil firm Pemex froze most of its new service contracts with drilling companies as the NOC’s top management mandated a $1 billion E&P budget cut, owing more than $5.2 billion overall, in a move that would lower the country’s production.

China is set to import its highest-ever volume of thermal coal amidst rising electricity demand, bringing in 37.5 million tonnes this month according to Kpler data, as global coal prices have been trending lower than domestic production, around $140 per metric tonne.

Global trading firm Trafigura has single-handedly launched a rally in zinc prices after it ordered thousands of tons of zinc out of LME warehouses, with total orders surging to a record 97,225 tonnes, sending prices of the base metal to $3,130 per metric tonne.

ADNOC, the national oil company of the UAE, has launched XRG, its new unit focused on investing in natural gas, low-carbon energy and chemicals that is slated to operate independently starting from Q1 2025, with an enterprise value of more than 80 billion.