Bullish Catalyst in Oil Markets as 2024 Draws to a Close

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Pre-Christmas trading tends to be very low on liquidity and this week will be no exception, with prices barely moving around the $73 per barrel mark. That said, if there were enough trades, they would most probably push prices higher as China’s monster $410 billion treasury bond sale seems to be the long-awaited stimulus measure oil markets would appreciate. However, the impact might only be felt in the new year.

US President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to reclaim the Panama Canal for the United States to put an end to a ‘complete rip-off’, claiming that the high transit costs are unjustified given that the US accounts for over 70% of all transits.

Qatar vowed to stop shipping liquefied natural gas to the European Union if member states would enforce new regulations on forced labor and environmental damage, providing 13-14% of the continent’s LNG needs in recent years.

Negotiations to limit export-credit energy finance for global fossil fuel projects organized under the umbrella of the OECD have collapsed without agreement, just weeks before US President-elect Donald Trump takes office.

Venture Global, one of the leading LNG developers in the US, filed for an initial public offering next year listing its shares under the symbol ‘VG’, seeking to raise some 3 billion from its IPO, mostly to fund operations as it expands its two plants in Louisiana.

The governments of Greece and Israel have signed an agreement to promote regional stability and energy projects, including the creation of a ‘green’ electricity corridor from Israel to EU countries in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Iraq has stopped supplying crude oil to Syria, amounting to more than half of the country’s needs with some 120,000 b/d flowing daily up until now, with Damascus’ new rulers struggling to find new sources of oil after the Kurds halted supply, too.

Chile’s environmental regulator SMA has filed four separate charges against the Los Bronces copper mine operated by mining giant Anglo American (LON:AAL), alleging non-compliance with environmental permits including acid drainage.

Brazilian authorities halted the construction of a new EV plant in the country operated by China’s top electric car producer BYD (SHE: 002594) after workers were found to live in slavery-like conditions, rescuing 163 Chinese workers.

Turkey and Hungary, two of the main buyers of Russian pipeline gas in Europe, were granted exemptions from recently introduced US sanctions on Gazprombank, the sister company of Russia’s pipeline gas monopoly Gazprom.
Less than a week after the Spanish parliament voted to eliminate the country’s windfall tax on energy companies, Spain’s government extended the levy into 2025 by direct government decree despite widespread concerns about falling investment.

India extended the suspension of trading in derivative contracts of key agriculture commodities until January 31, 2025, continuing a measure that was first introduced in 2021 to curb food inflation in wheat and rice, making it difficult for importers to hedge their risks.

According to S&P Global, methane emissions in the Permian basin plunged 26% this year as drillers tightened emission controls to stop leaks of the potent greenhouse gas, emitting 34 bcf less than last year on the back of stricter Biden-era mandates.

The Central American nation of El Salvador overturned a seven-year ban on mining for metals as the bill proposed by President Nayib Bukele passed Congress on a 57-3 vote, eyeing gold reserves worth 3 trillion alongside untapped rare earth deposits.