Oil
Black Sea Oil Disruption Fails to Shake Bearish Market Mood
The Russia-Ukraine war rages on, with Ukraine’s drone attacks temporarily halting oil loadings in Russia’s largest Black Sea port, however, even such a high-impact event was only able to recoup the past days’ losses and reset ICE Brent at $64 per barrel.
Oil bulls’ sentiment was dampened by this week’s monthly reports from the IEA and OPEC, particularly with the latter jumping on the 2026 oversupply bandwagon after months of predicting a supply deficit, OilPrice.com reports.
The International Energy Agency revised its 2026 outlook by lifting supply growth to 2.5 million b/d and curbing demand growth to just 770,000 b/d, now expecting a whopping 4.1 million b/d surplus next year, equivalent to 4% of global crude demand.
Russia’s largest Black Sea port of Novorossiysk temporarily suspended oil exports after an overnight drone attack by Ukraine that hit an oil depot and a docked ship, restricting some 2.2 million b/d of supply as the CPC terminal stopped loading, too.
US private equity firm Carlyle is reportedly considering buying the foreign assets of Russian oil major Lukoil (MCOX:LKOH), worth some $22 billion, planning to apply for a license from the Trump administration to buy the assets before beginning due diligence.
Colombia’s government is moving ahead with its plan to sell assets owned by the state oil company Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC) in the US Permian Basin, just as the joint venture with Occidental Petroleum ramped up production to 116,000 boe/d, as of Q2 2025.
Greenland, focused upstream firm Greenland Energy will drill its first exploration well in the country, OPW-1, in the summer of 2026, marking the first appraisal of the Jameson Land Basin, believed to be an untapped multi-billion-barrel play.
LA month pipeline flows were restarted in the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline and crude oil from Iraqi Kurdistan started flowing to markets again, two laden tankers have been idle off the Egyptian coast for two weeks, signalling potential demand issues.
The Trump administration has finalized its first purchase of crude for the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, buying 900,000 barrels of sour crude from global trading giant Trafigura and US midstream firm Energy Transfer at an average price of $62 per barrel.
Nigeria’s government has scrapped its plans to impose a 15% import duty on all refined products, citing assurances of adequate supply during the year-end holidays, amidst retailer protests that it would leave them dependent on the Dangote refinery.
The UK Maritime Trade Operations center warned of an incident off the UAE coast, reporting a sudden course deviation on a tanker (reported to be the Marshall Islands-flagged Talara) sailing towards Singapore after it had been approached by three small boats.
According to China’s statistics bureau NBS, electricity generation in October soared to an all-time high of 800.2 billion KWh, an 8% increase from a year ago due to an increase in heating demand amidst an unseasonably cold last month.
The Canadian government proposed adding the upcoming 12 mtpa Ksi Lisims LNG terminal to the country’s Major Projects list, fast-tracking its regulatory approval process in a bid to ensure the Blackstone-backed project sees a long-anticipated FID next year.
Argentina’s Milei government is mulling changes to the country’s federal regulations by eliminating provisions that protect glacial formations in the ore-rich Andes mountain range, helping Glencore (LON:GLEN) launch its $10 billion El Pachon copper project.
China reported industrial output growth of 4.9% last month, the slowest pace in more than a year, putting an end to a four-session hot streak for copper futures as the three-month LME contract corrected downwards to $10,865 per metric tonne.
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