Oil
Biden Doubles Down on Sanctions, May Lift Oil Prices
Sanctions have become the main news in 2025 so far, with this week seeing a tightening of US sanctions against China as the Pentagon targeted state-backed oil and shipping firms. Rumors are circulating that the outgoing Biden administration will slap further sanctions on Russia and Iran, inadvertently lifting oil prices before Donald Trump takes office on January 20. For the time being, ICE Brent futures are hovering around $77 per barrel, with a potential spike above $80 per barrel becoming an increasingly likely outcome.
The US Defense Department has sanctioned China’s offshore oil producer CNOOC (SHA:600938) and largest shipping firm Cosco over alleged links to the People’s Liberation Army, less than a month after the former sold its assets in the US Gulf of Mexico.
US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) filed a lawsuit against California Attorney General Rob Bonta and several environmental groups for alleged defamation, claiming Bonta has been acting in concert with a law firm that has ties to billionaire Andrew Forrest, OilPrice.com reports.
Sudan has withdrawn a force majeure on transportation and exports of crude from Port Sudan, ending an almost year-long blockade of its own production as well as South Sudan’s output, repairing damages caused by the insurgent militia RSF.
Italy’s Energy Minister Gilberto Fratin suggested the European Union extend its emergency cap on gas prices and set an upper limit of €60 per MWh to limit speculative trading in TTF futures as Ukraine’s transit halt and cold weather keep gas prices around €47-48/MWh.
The speed of natural gas withdrawals in Germany doubled in the first week of January as the ongoing cold snap increased heating demand, with net withdrawals averaging 1.23 TWh per day compared to 0.56 TWh per day the week before.
US Steel (NYSE:X) and its Japanese peer Nippon Steel filed a lawsuit in a federal appeals court against the Biden administration, claiming their blocked $15 billion merger was scuttled by the White House through a sham national security review.
India has issued a tender to build and operate a strategic petroleum reserves site with a capacity of 2.5 million tonnes at Padur in the southern Karnataka state, boosting the South Asian country’s SPR reserves that currently only wield 5.3 million tonnes.
Canada’s leading pipeline firm Enbridge (TSE:ENB) signed a letter of intent with the Alberta government to boost pipeline capacity amidst rising oil sands output, potentially expanding the US-bound 3.1 million b/d Mainline system.
Namibia is seeking investment from Beijing to build on its vast reserves on uranium and develop nuclear power in the African country, with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi visiting Windhoek this week, building on last year’s $3 billion desalination deal.
The United Kingdom has become Europe’s largest market for electric vehicles as new EV registrations rose to 381,970 last year, up 21% year-over-year and 1,300 units more than in Germany, greatly boosted by its stringent EV sales mandate.
According to climate analysts, Germany’s greenhouse gas emissions fell by 3% year-over-year to 656 million metric tonnes of CO2eq., undershooting Berlin’s own cap by more than 5% as industrial activity keeps on contracting.
China’s cobalt giant CMOC (SHA:603993) posted all-time high production figures of the transition metal in 2024, mining 114,165 metric tonnes and doubling the 2023 total of 55,526 tonnes, overperforming its own production guidance by a hefty 63%.
Iron ore futures continued their decline to an almost two-month low as the May futures contract on China’s Dalian Exchange dropped to ¥751 per metric tonne ($102/mt), driven by the ongoing slowdown in Chinese smelting ahead of the Lunar New Year.