Oil Markets Focus on OPEC+ as Geopolitical Catalysts Cool

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Last week’s scare of President Trump forcing a US-EU tariff war has subsided after the mulled 50% tariff was postponed until at least July 9, keeping ICE Brent relatively range-bound at $65 per barrel. With Russia-Ukraine talks failing to achieve anything substantial, and US-Iran negotiations remaining similarly static, OPEC+ will be the main price setter over the next week.

Eight OPEC+ countries that committed to voluntary production cuts will meet on May 31, one day earlier than previously assumed, as the ‘Great Eight’ is expected to bring back another 411,000 b/d of production into July, the third consecutive month of expedited unwinding, OilPrices.com reports.

The Neutral Zone, an oil-rich territory shared by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, could see more production very soon after the two countries announced a new oil discovery there north of the Wafra field, the first find since output was resumed in 2020.

European TTF benchmark gas prices rose to their highest since early April, surpassing €37 per MWh on Monday, after Norway’s largest gas field Troll was forced to extend a partial outage until May 31 due to a compressor failure, cutting 34.6 MCm/day.

Canadian miner Ivanhoe Mines (TSE:IVN) said that it had suspended its 2025 production guidance of 520,000-580,000 tonnes for the Kamoa-Kakula giant copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, citing underground tremors.

Reversing Joe Biden’s veto on Nippon Steel’s $14 billion acquisition of US Steel (NYSE:X), President Trump approved the deal in a surprise move, creating the world’s third-largest steel producer, following only China’s Baowu Steel and Luxembourg’s ArcelorMittal.

Libya’s National Oil Company halted parts of the 300,000 b/d pipeline system bringing crude oil to the country’s largest refinery in Zawiya after a huge oil leak was discovered in the desert just south of Zawiya, seeking to determine the causes of the spillage.

US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) and fellow major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) started their London arbitration process to determine the fate of the $53 billion Chevron-Hess deal, with Exxon claiming first refusal right on Hess’ Guyanese assets.

South Africa has offered to buy US liquefied natural gas over a 10-year period, a trade flow worth around $1 billion per year, as part of a bid to secure a comprehensive trade deal, having been temporarily hit with a 30% import tariff rate.

The US Environmental Protection Agency, led by Lee Zeldin, has reportedly drafted a plan to eliminate all greenhouse gas emission limits from coal and gas-fired power plants across the country, saying those emissions have no major impact on public health.

11 years after Tanzania’s last upstream bidding round was held, the African country is preparing its 5th licensing round, which would see 26 blocks on offer, of which 23 will be located offshore, seeking to resuscitate the stalled $42 billion Tanzania LNG project.

Revenue from US customs duties rose to $16.5 billion in April, effectively doubling the country’s collection of trade levies compared to March, with most of President Trump’s tariff impact coming via the 25% steel and aluminium duty as well as an equivalent levy on imported cars.

Ecuador declared an emergency and halted all operations at its 110,000 b/d Esmeraldas refinery, the largest in the country, after a fire broke out at a fuel oil storage tank, with national oil firm Petroecuador stating it needed to shut down out of precaution.

Indonesia made a U-turn on its previous pledge not to build any new coal-fired power plants with its new 10-year power supply plan, seeking to add 69.5 GW of new generation capacity by the end of 2034, factoring in economic growth of 8% by 2029 compared to the current 5%.