OPEC+ Meeting Is Looming Large Over Oil Markets

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A potential Israel-Lebanon ceasefire deal is looming large on the geopolitical front, but as we get closer to December 1, OPEC+ is becoming the main focus of oil markets. After the energy ministers of Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq met in Baghdad on Tuesday, unannounced, the pendulum has swung towards postponement of production increases, with ICE Brent so far rangebound at around $73.50 per barrel.

OPEC+ will hold its much-anticipated policy meeting online rather than in person, as the oil markets are speculating about Saudi Arabia and Russia considering postponing output increases indefinitely amidst weak global demand, OilPrice.com reports .

China has issued an additional crude import quota of 5.84 million tonnes (equivalent to almost 120,000 b/d) to independent refiners so that they can boost refinery runs in the remaining weeks of 2024, particularly independent major Hengli (SHA:600346).

Oil service providers across Mexico are demanding that state-owned oil firm Pemex pay its overdue debts totaling $5.1 billion, just as the new Sheinbaum government has simplified taxation for Pemex, merging three duties into one.

Propane production plunged 97% since an explosion at the Muscar gas complex debilitated Venezuela’s gas separation complex, drastically cutting the availability of cooking oil over the next four to five months until Muscar is fully repaired.

The time spread between M1 and M2 of ICE gasoil futures has moved to its widest since April, at a $7.5 per metric tonne premium, indicating that backwardation is steepening amidst lower Saudi and US incoming volumes and lower European availability.

Bangladesh will open its international bidding process for offshore gas exploration next month, concurrently liberalizing its LNG market, allowing any commercial entity to import LNG from the spot market.

The Gazprom-OMV arbitration row seems to be having no impact whatsoever on physical supplies of natural gas to Europe as this week’s nominations have been stable at 42.2 MCm/day, with Austria-bound deliveries returning to levels seen last week.

French energy giant TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) announced it would stop any financial contributions to India’s Adani group of companies after the US SEC charged India’s second-richest businessman Gautam Adani with bribery, jointly developing 4 renewables-focused assets.

US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) has relinquished its 50% non-operated interest in deepwater Block 52 in Suriname, just across the border from its prolific Stabroek block in Guyana, with Malaysia’s Petronas taking over the entire acreage.

Coffee futures skyrocketed to their highest since 1997 on weak crop concerns, with Arabica prices hitting $3.1 per pound, up almost 65% this year, as continuous drought conditions in Brazil are set to drastically reduce next year’s output.

The Turkish government is reportedly in talks with the United States to secure a Russia sanctions waiver to continue paying for its natural gas supplies through the recently sanctioned Gazprombank, with Gazprom supplying 50% of its gas imports.

Saudi Arabia signed 9 investment deals in metals and mining worth more than $9.3 billion with Asian mining majors such as Vedanta or Zijin Group, seeking to boost domestic capacity with a new copper smelter in Ras al-Khair, zinc and platinum smelters.

Brazil’s national oil company Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) approved the payout of an additional $3.4 billion in extraordinary dividends to shareholders, withheld previously under the previous management, concurrently lowering the minimum cash level to $6 billion.